LUCK’s Margins Stay Mixed As Export Weakness Limits Upside

Posted by: Aamir Hayat Like: 0 Post Date: April 27, 2026

LUCK’s Margins Stay Mixed As Export Weakness Limits Upside

Ticker: Lucky Cement Limited LUCK
Analyst Briefing Date: February 3, 2026

This article summarizes Lucky Cement Limited’s corporate briefing, focusing on 2QFY26 financial performance, domestic demand recovery, energy transition, export trends, and operational investments. It highlights stronger profitability supported by local volumes, while exports and some group businesses faced pressure.

📢 Announcement: You can now access our services and similar analyses by opening an account with us via JS Global

Don't miss:

What did the management say?

Management stated that domestic cement demand improved significantly, with Pakistan’s market growing 12.5% year on year in 1HFY26. Lucky Cement’s own sales rose to 3.36 million tons from 2.98 million tons, reflecting stronger local dispatches. Market share remained broadly stable with only a marginal 0.1% decline during the period. They also highlighted continued focus on efficiency and sustainability. Around 56–57% of the energy mix now comes from renewables, including 89.3 MW of solar and 28.8 MW of wind capacity, with another 15 MW of solar planned by March 2026. Management further noted PKR 3.5 billion invested in UC3 technology at the Karachi plant to reduce coal consumption and increase clinker output.

What did the numbers say?

For 2QFY26, standalone net revenue stood at PKR 33.85 billion, while consolidated net revenue reached PKR 123.40 billion. Standalone gross profit increased 0.82% year on year, whereas consolidated gross profit declined 5.7%. Profit after tax rose 18.56% on a standalone basis and 3.2% on a consolidated basis. Export volumes declined to 1.5 million tons from 1.8 million tons, mainly due to the Afghan border closure. Average domestic retention was approximately PKR 15,400 per ton. Average coal cost stood at PKR 34,000 per ton, while freight from Karachi to northern plants ranged between PKR 8,000 and 10,000 per ton. Clinker export prices were USD 33–34 per ton and bagged cement USD 45–46 per ton.

What should investors expect going forward?

Investors should expect domestic demand recovery to remain an important earnings driver if construction activity and dispatch trends stay supportive. Efficiency gains from renewable energy expansion and UC3 technology upgrades may help offset fuel and logistics pressures over time. Stable market share also suggests continued competitiveness in the local market. Exports may remain sensitive to border disruptions and regional trade flows, particularly with Afghanistan. Group-level diversified interests add another variable, as pharma and animal health remained stable while LUCK faced pressure in soda ash and polyester. The super tax matter remains a watch point, though management stated sufficient cash reserves are available if needed.

What are analysts saying about LUCK stock?

📢 Announcement: We're on WhatsApp – Join Us There!

According to the KSEStocks Database, LUCK is covered by 13 analysts in Pakistan and they have an average price rating of PKR 602. This average price target suggests an upside of 39.9% from the last close of PKR 430.25. According to EPS estimates from 16 different brokers, LUCK has an average 2026 EPS expectation of 59.1. This suggests the stock is now trading at a forward PE of 8.2.

Why do we compile research firms’ forecasts?
Broker research is fragmented across different houses. Compiling it in one place helps investors see consensus, identify divergence, and think independently rather than relying on a single view.

⚠️ This post reflects the author’s personal opinion and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk and should be done independently. Read full disclaimer →