Top 6 Stocks That Benefit from Rupee Depreciation

Posted by: Aamir Hayat Like: 0 Post Date: June 3, 2026

Top 6 Stocks That Benefit from Rupee Depreciation

Introduction

When the Pakistani rupee weakens against the US dollar, it is bad news for importers and consumers. But for a selective group of companies, currency depreciation is actually a tailwind, one that directly inflates their revenue, expands their margins and lifts their earnings per share. These companies fall into two broad categories. The first are exporters: businesses that earn in dollars, euros, or other hard currencies but pay the majority of their costs in rupees. Every time the PKR weakens, their foreign currency receipts convert into more rupees, boosting profitability without any change in underlying operations. The second are companies with hard assets like oil, gas, and minerals, whose commodity prices are globally denominated in dollars, meaning weaker PKR directly increases their local currency earnings. In this article, we profile five PSX-listed companies that are positioned to benefit directly from PKR depreciation. Each profile is based exclusively on the latest quarterly results and corporate briefing data available for 2026.

6. Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK)

Lucky Cement is Pakistan’s largest cement manufacturer with a domestic capacity of 15.7 million tons, representing an 18% capacity-based market share. What makes Lucky Cement relevant to a rupee depreciation theme is its significant international footprint: the company has fully integrated operations in Iraq and the Democratic Republic of Congo, earning revenues in foreign currencies. Its growing export volumes and non-cement diversification provide multiple layers of PKR depreciation benefit.

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Latest Quarterly Results (3QFY26)

Earnings and Revenue: Standalone net sales for 3QFY26 reached PKR 33,148 million, reflecting 9.7% year-over-year growth. Consolidated EPS for the quarter was recorded at PKR 14.39.
Operational Dispatches: Local dispatches reached 1.56 million tons (up 1.71% YoY), while export dispatches saw a double-digit increase of 10.31%, totaling 788,796 tons.
Margin Efficiency: Gross profit margin improved to 36.5%, up from 33.2% in the same period last year, supported by high utilization of renewable energy assets.
Financial Reductions: Finance costs declined 14.8% year-over-year, aided by lower interest rates and a reduction in total debt levels.

Latest Corporate Briefing Data (May 2026)

Energy Infrastructure: Lucky Cement has integrated a new 15 MW solar asset at its Karachi facility, bringing total solar capacity to 89.3 MW. Green renewable sources, including solar, wind, and Waste Heat Recovery (WHR), now power 56–57% of its total energy mix.
Automotive Segment Expansion: Lucky Motor Corporation (LMC) entered into an exclusive partnership with the GAC automotive brand and recently launched four new vehicle models with a strategic focus on the Electric Vehicle (EV) category.
Power and Fuel Transition: The company’s 660 MW power plant (LEPCL) is on track to transition its fuel configuration to 100% local Thar coal by the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, expected to significantly improve its position on the national merit order.
International Growth: Management announced a 1.6 million ton per annum expansion at its manufacturing facility in the DR Congo, which will effectively double its capacity in that region and increase foreign currency revenues.
Mining Discovery: Through its joint venture National Resources Limited (NRL), the company is progressing with resource drilling in Balochistan following the discovery of copper and gold mineralization.
Strategic Diversification: Lucky Cement is part of a consortium actively participating in the bidding process for the privatization of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA).

5. Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL)

Pakistan Petroleum Limited is one of Pakistan’s most established oil and gas exploration companies. Its revenue is directly tied to international commodity prices denominated in US dollars, making it a natural beneficiary of a weaker rupee. Financial models show that as the PKR/USD exchange rate moves from 290 to 320, the company’s forecasted 2026 EPS rises from PKR 32.16 to PKR 35.23, a direct illustration of how rupee depreciation translates into higher earnings.

2026 Financial Projections

Earnings Per Share (EPS): Forecasts for the 2026 fiscal year range from PKR 27.3 to PKR 32.2.
Dividend Per Share (DPS): Projections indicate a distribution between PKR 7.50 and PKR 11.00.
Net Sales: Estimated to reach between PKR 226.5 billion and PKR 262.5 billion.
Profit After Tax (PAT): Forecasted at approximately PKR 74.2 billion to PKR 87.5 billion.
Payout Ratio: The dividend payout ratio is anticipated to strengthen to between 28% and 34%.
Currency Sensitivity: As the PKR/USD exchange rate increases from 290 to 320, the company’s forecasted 2026 EPS rises from PKR 32.16 to PKR 35.23, directly illustrating the positive impact of rupee depreciation on earnings.

Latest Corporate Briefing Data (2026)

Major Hydrocarbon Discovery: PPL (holding a 30% stake) reported a significant discovery at the Baragzai X-01 well in the Nashpa Block. With test flows of 13,470 barrels of oil per day (bopd) and 36.46 mmscfd of gas, this discovery is projected to add approximately PKR 5.04 per share to the company’s EPS.
Aggressive Drilling Strategy: Management has pivoted toward an ambitious exploration programme, planning to spud over 8 exploratory wells in FY26 — a fourfold increase compared to the previous year.
Strategic Mining Exposure: The company holds an effective 8.33% stake in the world-class Reko Diq copper-gold project, estimated to contribute a valuation of roughly PKR 118 per share to PPL’s long-term outlook.
Diversified Portfolio: PPL is actively involved in the Baryte-Lead-Zinc (BLZ) project in Balochistan, which carries an estimated Net Present Value (NPV) of PKR 53.4 billion. It also maintains international exposure through a 25% stake in Abu Dhabi’s Offshore Block 5.

Latest Quarterly and Operational Results (2026)

Strong Cash Position: As of early 2026, the company maintains a robust cash balance of PKR 89 billion, equivalent to PKR 33 per share.
Improved Collection Rates: PPL achieved high collection rates, reaching 96% in 1QFY26 and 93% in 2QFY26.
Circular Debt Catalyst: The company’s exposure to gas sector circular debt stands at PKR 599 billion (PKR 220 per share). Its resolution is viewed as the primary trigger for unlocking significant additional liquidity.
Production Recovery: Total output is expected to recover in 2026 as LNG cargoes are diverted to international markets, easing domestic pipeline congestion and allowing for higher offtake from PPL’s domestic fields.
Field Performance: Recent technical interventions and normalized offtake are expected to drive an aggregate 12% production growth over the FY26–28 period, led by flagship assets in the Sui, Kandhkot, and Nashpa fields.

4. Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC)

OGDC is Pakistan’s largest oil and gas exploration company and one of the most quantifiably direct beneficiaries of rupee depreciation. Financial models show that as the PKR/USD rate moves from 290 to 320, the company’s forecasted 2026 EPS can increase from PKR 37.28 to PKR 42.43, a PKR 5.15 per share gain purely from currency movement. Combined with its improving cash cycle and high-impact exploration activity, OGDC stands as one of the most compelling names in this category.

Latest Quarterly Results (9MFY26)

Net Sales: Reported at PKR 300 billion for the nine months ending March 2026.
Profit After Tax (PAT): PKR 115.3 billion.
Earnings Per Share (EPS): PKR 26.8 for the first three quarters of the fiscal year.
Liquidity Improvement: The company achieved a robust collection rate of 130% during 2QFY26.
Receivables Management: OGDC is currently the only sector player to achieve an absolute contraction in total receivables, which were down 4% as of the first quarter of 2026.
Significant Cash Inflows: During FY26, the company is expected to receive PKR 92 billion from interest settlements and approximately PKR 90 billion in arrears from Uch Power.
Production Volume Recovery: Optimization initiatives have already pushed oil production above 40,000 bpd for the first time since FY19.

2026 Financial Projections

Earnings Per Share (EPS): Full-year forecasts for FY26 range between PKR 33.7 and PKR 36.2.
Dividend Per Share (DPS): Projected to be between PKR 13.50 and PKR 16.30.
Net Sales: Expected to reach approximately PKR 386.5 billion to PKR 416.9 billion.
Profit After Tax (PAT): Estimated at roughly PKR 141 billion for the full fiscal year.
Payout Ratio: Anticipated at approximately 40% to 50% during 2026.
Currency Sensitivity: As the PKR/USD exchange rate moves from 290 to 320, the company’s forecasted 2026 EPS increases from PKR 37.28 to PKR 42.43.

Latest Corporate Briefing Data (May 2026)

Production Targets: Management is targeting oil production levels of 48,000 to 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) by December 2026.
Tight Gas Strategy: OGDC is actively evaluating 80 wells for tight gas potential, which offers an immediate revenue uplift due to a 40% premium pricing structure.
Major Hydrocarbon Discovery: The Baragzai X-01 discovery in the Nashpa Block produced test flows of 13,470 bopd of oil and 36.46 mmcfd of gas, estimated to add PKR 6.91 per share to the company’s EPS.
Strategic Mining Exposure: OGDC holds an effective 8.33% stake in the world-class Reko Diq copper-gold project. Civil works are currently underway, and the project is viewed as a transformational long-term driver for the balance sheet.
International and Renewable Diversification: The company maintains a 10% participating interest in Abu Dhabi’s Offshore Block 5 and has formally entered the green energy space via its subsidiary, OGDC Renewable Energy Private Limited (OREL).
Circular Debt Resolution: A formal resolution proposal for gas circular debt has been submitted to the IMF, which is viewed as a major catalyst for unlocking significant liquidity.

3. Mari Energies Limited (MARI)

2026 Financial Projections Mari Energies Limited, recently rebranded from Mari Petroleum to reflect its transition into a broader energy and technology conglomerate, is a primary beneficiary of rupee depreciation due to its dollar-indexed wellhead pricing and revenue streams. Projections for the 2026 fiscal year include:

Earnings Per Share (EPS): Estimated to be between PKR 49.4 and PKR 50.0.
Dividend Per Share (DPS): Forecasted to range from PKR 20.0 to PKR 22.2.
Net Sales: Expected to reach approximately PKR 202 billion.
Profit After Tax (PAT): Projected at roughly PKR 59.3 billion.
Dividend Yield: Anticipated at 2.9% to 3.2% for the period.

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Latest Corporate Briefing Data (2026) The company’s strategic focus for 2026 is defined by an aggressive exploration pivot and diversification into high-margin non-cyclical sectors:

Strategic Rebranding: The formal name change to Mari Energies Limited signals a long-term commitment to move beyond traditional hydrocarbons into mining, technology, and renewable ventures.
Offshore Exploration Milestone: In a major 2026 development, MARI secured stakes in all 23 awarded offshore blocks in the recent bid round, serving as operator for 18 of them. This positions the company as the most active explorer in high-alpha frontier regions.
Data Center Venture: Through its subsidiary Sky47 Limited, the company is developing two Tier-III certified 5MW data centers in Islamabad and Karachi. This segment is projected to contribute 8–10% to the bottom line at scalable utilization, providing a non-hydrocarbon hedge to earnings.
Mining Diversification: Its wholly owned subsidiary, Mari Minerals (Pvt) Limited, holds multiple exploration licenses in the Chagai district of Balochistan. The subsidiary recently entered joint ventures for copper and gold exploration, further diversifying its asset base.
Acquisition Strategy: MARI is in the process of acquiring a 65% working interest and operatorship of the Peshawar Block and a 20% working interest in the Eastern Offshore Block-C.

Latest Quarterly and Operational Results (2QFY26) Operational data highlights MARI’s resilience and ability to sustain output growth despite broader industry curtailments:

Production Resilience: While the aggregate sector witnessed a 9% production decline, MARI maintained a stable profile with a 1% CAGR projected over the FY24–26 period.
New Production Streams: Commercial production has commenced from the Waziristan block, contributing approximately 70 mmscfd of gas and 700 bopd of condensate, which accounts for 9% of the company’s current production.
System Balancing: MARI continues to act as a “system balancer” in the national gas network, managing reservoir pressure to ensure long-term deliverability to key fertilizer customers.
Ghazij/Shawal Potential: These reservoirs currently produce 48 mmscfd, with a phased ramp-up plan to reach 220 mmscfd by the second half of 2028 to support domestic fertilizer plants.
Liquidity Position: The company maintains relatively lower exposure to gas sector circular debt compared to its peers, with only 45% of its sales tied to gas utilities. Its cash flow conversion remains strong, supported by steady offtake from the fertilizer sector.

2. Interloop Limited (ILP)

Interloop Limited is a vertically integrated textile enterprise and a global leader in hosiery, supplying major international brands such as Nike, Adidas, Puma, and H&M. With over 90% of its revenue derived from international sales, the company is one of the most direct PKR depreciation plays on the PSX. Every weakening of the rupee against the dollar converts into higher rupee-denominated earnings without any additional operational effort.

Latest Corporate Briefing Data (2026–2027 Projections)

Earnings Projections: For FY2027, EPS is projected to range from PKR 11.29 to PKR 13.12. For FY2026, EPS is estimated to be between PKR 6.81 and PKR 8.85.
Revenue Growth: Net sales are expected to grow by 15% in FY2026 and accelerate by 24% in FY2027.
Capacity Expansion: Growth is driven by the full operationalization of Hosiery Plant 6, which has increased capacity by approximately 25%. Additionally, seven new lines in the denim segment are scheduled to come online by 4QFY26, expected to expand margins further.
Strategic Diversification: The company is expanding its regional export base with a planned USD 35 million investment in Egypt, expected to be commissioned by 1QCY2027. It is also increasing its presence in the GCC region and Japan.
Sustainability and Energy: The company is targeting a total renewable energy capacity of 25 MW by FY2026.

Latest Quarterly and Sectoral Data (2026 Context)

Operational Turnaround: The company is expected to report a significant turnaround in operating profit and earnings during the FY26–FY27 period, supported by improved utilization rates across its expanded apparel, hosiery, and denim plants.
Segment Recovery: In the first half of the 2026 fiscal cycle, losses in the apparel segment were reported to be narrowing sharply as production scales toward a target of 1.6 million garments per month by FY26.
Cotton Supply Environment: National cotton production for the FY26 season is expected to face a 30% shortfall against government targets. Consequently, the textile industry is projected to import approximately 4 million bales of raw cotton during 2026 to meet production requirements.
Currency Dynamics: While the PKR showed relative stability in early 2026, the company remains positioned to gain from the structural trajectory of rupee adjustment due to its high export exposure.

1. Systems Limited (SYS)

Systems Limited is Pakistan’s largest publicly listed IT company and one of the most structurally compelling PKR depreciation plays on the exchange. With 91% to 93% of revenue denominated in hard currencies (USD, Euro, and GBP) and only 42% to 43% of its costs in foreign currency, the company benefits from a powerful natural margin expansion every time the rupee weakens. Its 82% to 83% Pakistan-based workforce means the bulk of its cost base is in rupees, precisely the currency that is depreciating.

PKR Depreciation Benefit Profile

Currency Devaluation Hedge: 91% to 93% of total revenue is denominated in foreign currencies (USD, Euro, and GBP).
Natural Margin Expansion: Only 42% to 43% of the company’s costs are foreign-currency denominated, providing a significant natural push to profit margins during local currency devaluation.
Structural Cost Advantage: With 82% to 83% of its workforce based in Pakistan, the company leverages a structurally lower labor cost base relative to regional and global competitors.
High-Quality Earnings: 93% of revenue is recurring, supported by long-term client relationships that often exceed five years.
Sector Diversification: Revenue is diversified across high-growth verticals, with the Banking and Financial Services vertical (30%) and the Telecommunications vertical (25%) acting as the primary growth drivers.

Latest Corporate Briefing Data (April 2026)

Strategic Inorganic Growth: The company has completed the acquisitions of Confiz and BAT Shared Services, with the full financial impact expected to materialize throughout 2026.
North American Market Entry: The acquisition of Confiz provides direct access to high-value North American enterprise clients in the retail and consumer packaged goods (CPG) sectors, including major chains such as Walmart, Nordstrom, and Macy’s.
Middle East Resilience: Despite regional geopolitical uncertainty, demand in the MENA region remains strong, with no delays in projects or bidding activity observed in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Resource Center Expansion: While Pakistan remains the core delivery hub, the company is expanding its resource centers in the UAE and Egypt to better support international clients and tap into the Arabic-speaking talent pool.
Financial Priority: Management has stated a priority for free cash flow over absolute profit to ensure the company can organically fund dividends and future acquisitions without relying on debt.

Forward-Looking Data (2026–2027)

2026 Earnings Estimates: EPS is projected to range between PKR 9.75 and PKR 11.73 per share.
2027 Earnings Estimates: EPS is forecasted to range between PKR 12.43 and PKR 15.19 per share.
Revenue Growth Outlook: A robust five-year forward revenue CAGR of 25% is projected, underpinned by global digital transformation trends and supportive domestic IT export policies.
Market Share Targets: The company’s share in national IT exports is expected to increase to over 7% by 2027, supported by government initiatives targeting US$10 billion in total IT exports by 2029–30.

Conclusion

Rupee depreciation is a recurring feature of Pakistan’s economic landscape, and investors who understand which companies benefit from it can turn a macroeconomic headwind into a portfolio opportunity. The five companies profiled in this article each benefit from PKR weakness through clearly identifiable and quantifiable mechanisms. PPL and OGDC are among the most direct beneficiaries, with financial models showing EPS gains of PKR 3 to PKR 5 per share for every 30-point move in the PKR/USD rate. Both companies are also benefiting from improved cash collections, major new hydrocarbon discoveries, and strategic diversification into minerals, creating multiple growth levers beyond the currency theme alone. Interloop offers a high-purity export play, with more than 90% of its revenue in hard currency and a significant earnings recovery expected through FY26 and FY27 as its new capacity scales up. Systems Limited is unique in that it combines the highest degree of foreign currency revenue exposure with a structurally lower cost base, making it one of the most efficient PKR depreciation hedges available. And Lucky Cement rounds out the list with its international manufacturing footprint, double-digit export volume growth, and continued investment in energy efficiency and diversification, which together create a business model that benefits from both currency movements and operational improvement. As always, investors are encouraged to review the latest available company disclosures and conduct independent due diligence before making investment decisions.

⚠️ This post reflects the author’s personal opinion and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk and should be done independently. Read full disclaimer →

Top 6 Stocks That Benefit from Rupee Depreciation

Top 6 Stocks That Benefit from Rupee Depreciation

Introduction