Can Citi Pharma (CPHL) reach Rs. 217 in a year?

Posted by: Tania Farooq Like: 1 Post Date: February 12, 2025

Can Citi Pharma (CPHL) reach Rs. 217 in a year?

Key takeaways

Buy Recommendation: Citi Pharma (CPHL) has a target price of Rs. 217, implying a 106% upside from the current price of Rs. 105.
High-Growth Potential: The company is set to achieve a 3-year earnings CAGR of 75% (FY25-27) by expanding into high-margin retail and global markets.
Strategic Shift to Retail Market: CPHL is moving beyond API supply to tap into an Rs235bn retail market, significantly boosting revenue and gross margins.
Competitive Advantage: As a leading API manufacturer, CPHL is leveraging its low production costs to offer competitive pricing in the retail segment.
Global Expansion: CPHL has signed supply deals with multinational companies (MNCs) to establish production units in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia, positioning itself for major international growth.

Citi Pharma: expanding horizons with high growth potential

Citi Pharma (CPHL), one of Pakistan’s leading API producers, is gearing up for a major growth surge. With a buy recommendation and a target price of Rs217, the company is offering investors a 136% upside from its current price of Rs92. This bullish outlook is fueled by strategic expansions into the high-margin retail market and global exports, both of which are expected to drive a 3-year earnings CAGR of 75%.

Breaking into the Rs. 235bn retail market

CPHL has traditionally been a supplier of APIs for major pharmaceutical companies like HALEON, SAMI, GLAXO, and BARRETT HODGSON. These APIs—primarily for antibiotics and analgesics—represent a Rs100bn industry. However, the company is now diversifying into the retail sector, which boasts a larger Rs235bn market.

This move will significantly boost revenues and margins, as API production typically yields a 13% gross margin, whereas finished pharma products in retail command a 45% margin. By vertically integrating and directly supplying to the market, CPHL is set to capture greater value per product, enhancing overall profitability.

Competitive edge: low-cost leader with market penetration

CPHL has already built a strong presence in public hospitals by supplying formulated pharma products. Now, it is leveraging its cost advantage as a top API producer to offer competitive pricing in the retail segment. This strategy is expected to strengthen its foothold and market share in the high-margin sector.

Going global: expansion into Indonesia & Saudi Arabia

A major growth catalyst for CPHL is its global expansion. The company has signed agreements with multinational corporations (MNCs) to set up API production units in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. These larger, more lucrative markets will allow CPHL to scale its operations and benefit from better pricing structures, amplifying revenue streams.

Financial outlook: strong earnings growth & future dividends

CPHL’s financials indicate strong future performance:

EPS is expected to rise from Rs3.6 in FY24 to Rs19.4 in FY27, showcasing tremendous growth potential.
Return on Equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 15% in FY24 to 48% in FY27, indicating improved profitability.
Dividend payouts, currently non-existent, are expected to start in FY26, with a 12% yield by FY27.

A must-watch stock for high returns

Citi Pharma is positioned for explosive growth with its retail expansion, global market entry, and strong financial outlook. With a 136% upside potential, high-margin retail penetration, and international expansion plans, CPHL is a high-growth stock to watch in the pharmaceutical sector. As the company unlocks its full potential in the coming years, investors should keep a close eye on this rising pharma powerhouse.