Fertilizer sales drop in April 2024
Overview
In April 2024, the fertilizer industry in Pakistan experienced a notable decline in off-take compared to the previous month and year. Here are the key highlights from the recent data:
Fertilizer Sales Performance
The total fertilizer off-take for April 2024 was 518,092 tons, which marks a significant decrease of 45% compared to March 2024 and 10% compared to April 2023. Despite this decline, the nutrient off-take increased by approximately 6% compared to the same period last year.
Among different nutrients:
- Nitrogen and Potash volumes fell by approximately 16% and 15%, respectively.
- Phosphate off-take, however, saw a substantial increase of around 60% during the month.
Urea Off-Take
The Urea off-take during April 2024 was approximately 328,000 tons, representing a 20% decline compared to the same period last year. This decline is attributed to several factors, including a high base effect from imported Urea in March 2024, ongoing turnaround of EFERT’s Enven plant limiting supplies, and seasonal fluctuations.
DAP Off-Take
In contrast, DAP off-take improved significantly by approximately 83% year-on-year in April 2024, reaching around 93,000 tons. This growth is mainly due to a low base effect from the previous year.
Closing Inventory
The closing inventory for April 2024 is as follows:
- Urea: Approximately 368,000 tons, up significantly by about 1.1x month-on-month (MoM).
- DAP: Approximately 117,000 tons, up by 50% MoM.
Fertilizer Prices
In April 2024, local Urea prices remained stable, while DAP and NP prices experienced a marginal decline of 1.4% and 1.1% MoM, respectively. Internationally, Urea prices ranged from USD 291-315/ton in China and USD 280-335/ton in the Middle East. Australian DAP prices were recorded at USD 492-649/ton.
Outlook and Other Updates
Looking ahead, we anticipate Urea and DAP demand to reach approximately 6.6 million tons and 1.6 million tons, respectively, in CY24. The government has approved further Urea imports to ensure sufficient supplies during the upcoming Kharif season.
Despite a drop in international fertilizer prices, local prices remained stable, albeit with concerns over recent urea price hikes for MARI-based fertilizer plants. The overall sentiment remains positive, with opportunities expected for EFERT and FFC as top picks in the sector, offering attractive dividend yields for CY24.
| Tons (‘000’) | Apr-24 | Apr-23 | YoY | Mar-24 | MoM | 4MCY24 | 4MCY23 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UREA | ||||||||
| FFC* | 188 | 134 | +41% | 293 | -36% | 943 | 765 | +23% |
| EFERT | 75 | 157 | -52% | 215 | -65% | 698 | 708 | -1% |
| FFBL | 35 | 37 | -5% | 21 | +71% | 100 | 125 | -20% |
| FATIMA* | 27 | 45 | -41% | 102 | -74% | 301 | 177 | +70% |
| Others | 2 | 31 | -94% | 40 | -96% | 113 | 40 | +1.8x |
| NFML (Imp.) | 0 | 4 | N M | 0 | N/M | 0 | 217 | -1.0x |
| Total Off-take | 328 | 408 | -20% | 671 | -51% | 2,155 | 2,032 | +6% |
| DAP | ||||||||
| FFBL | 52 | 28 | +89% | 78 | -33% | 222 | 155 | +43% |
| FFC | 29 | 1 | +28.9x | 0 | N/M | 47 | 24 | +92% |
| EFERT | 10 | 11 | -8% | 21 | -53% | 93 | 56 | +67% |
| Others | 1 | 11 | -87% | 7 | -78% | 20 | 60 | -67% |
| Total Off-take | 93 | 51 | +83% | 107 | -13% | 381 | 295 | +29% |
This table summarizes the off-take (in thousands of tons) of UREA and DAP fertilizers for April 2024 compared to previous periods, showing year-over-year (YoY) and month-over-month (MoM) changes, along with cumulative figures for the year.
Disclaimer:
The information in this article is based on research by TSL Research. All efforts have been made to ensure the data represented in this article is as per the research report. This report should not be considered investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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