Pakistan cement dispatches decline in June 2024
Local cement sales down 18% in June
In June 2024, local cement dispatches in Pakistan are expected to decrease by 18% month-on-month (MoM), totaling 2.76 million tons. This decline is also projected to be 21% lower compared to June 2023. The primary reasons for this drop are fewer working days due to Eid holidays and lower demand following the seasonal peak in May 2024.
Year-on-year decline in sales
For June 2024, the average daily domestic sales are anticipated to be 92,000 tons per day, a decrease from the 116,300 tons per day average in June 2023. This year-on-year (YoY) decline in local cement dispatches is attributed to a slowdown in construction activities caused by higher construction costs and increased cement bag prices, which have risen by 13% and 7% in the North and South regions, respectively.
Monthly and yearly comparison of sales
| Cement Sales (mn tons) | Jun-24E | Jun-23A | YoY | MoM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Local | 2.76 | 3.49 | -21% | -18% |
| North | 2.36 | 2.86 | -17% | -14% |
| South | 0.40 | 0.63 | -36% | -34% |
| Export | 0.51 | 0.58 | -11% | -45% |
| Total | 3.28 | 4.07 | -19% | -24% |
FY24 overview: slight increase in total sales
For the fiscal year 2024 (FY24), total cement sales are expected to rise by 1% year-on-year, reaching 45.02 million tons. This includes a 5% decline in local sales to 37.87 million tons and a 57% increase in export sales to 7.15 million tons. This marks the first time in over 30 years that local cement sales have declined for three consecutive years.
Fiscal year sales comparison
| Cement Sales (mn tons) | FY24E | FY23A | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Local | 37.87 | 40.02 | -5% |
| North | 31.29 | 32.78 | -5% |
| South | 6.58 | 7.24 | -9% |
| Export | 7.15 | 4.57 | 57% |
| Total | 45.02 | 44.58 | 1% |
Factors affecting sales
- Higher construction costs: Increased prices for construction inputs have slowed down construction activities.
- Rising cement bag prices: Prices have increased by 13% in the North and 7% in the South, further affecting sales.
- Lower government spending: Reduced spending from the Public Sector Development Program (PSDP) has also contributed to the decline in local sales.
- Improved export conditions: Lower coal prices and reduced freight charges have made cement exports more feasible, leading to a significant increase in export sales.
Company-wise performance
A closer look at the performance of major cement companies reveals mixed results, with some showing significant declines in local sales but substantial increases in exports.
Company-wise sales overview
| Company | Jun-24E | Jun-23A | YoY | MoM | FY24E | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUCK | 719,017 | 732,201 | -2% | -8% | 8,461,514 | 15% |
| Local | 429,918 | 664,372 | -35% | -22% | 6,179,946 | 0% |
| Exports | 289,099 | 67,829 | 326% | 28% | 2,281,568 | 97% |
| DGKC | 323,348 | 512,934 | -37% | -24% | 4,828,039 | -4% |
| Local | 254,732 | 320,387 | -20% | -19% | 3,579,079 | -13% |
| Exports | 68,615 | 192,547 | -64% | -39% | 1,248,959 | 34% |
| MLCF | 284,334 | 332,149 | -14% | -20% | 3,885,199 | -5% |
| Local | 271,825 | 319,547 | -15% | -21% | 3,719,247 | -7% |
| Exports | 12,509 | 12,602 | -1% | 8% | 165,952 | 39% |
| BWCL | 490,667 | 589,324 | -17% | -15% | 6,849,908 | 5% |
| Local | 486,539 | 582,069 | -16% | -15% | 6,728,451 | 5% |
| Exports | 4,128 | 7,255 | -43% | -46% | 121,457 | 55% |
| PIOC | 169,172 | 234,125 | -28% | -21% | 2,345,362 | -13% |
| Local | 169,172 | 234,125 | -28% | -21% | 2,345,362 | -13% |
| Exports | – | – | – | – | – | NM |
| CHCC | 193,466 | 224,382 | -14% | -16% | 2,603,016 | -9% |
| Local | 157,650 | 194,574 | -19% | -17% | 2,200,613 | -13% |
| Exports | 35,816 | 29,808 | 20% | -12% | 402,403 | 21% |
| ACPL | 143,422 | 251,336 | -43% | -9% | 2,338,184 | 15% |
| Local | 87,680 | 116,772 | -25% | -15% | 1,225,961 | -10% |
| Exports | 55,742 | 134,564 | -59% | 0% | 1,112,223 | 65% |
| KOHC | 184,116 | 251,824 | -27% | -10% | 2,551,155 | -15% |
| Local | 182,746 | 245,048 | -25% | -10% | 2,509,783 | -15% |
| Exports | 1,370 | 6,776 | -80% | -0.53 | 41,372 | 34% |
| FCCL | 444,108 | 412,234 | 8% | -1% | 5,057,426 | 4% |
| Local | 410,996 | 378,966 | 8% | 0% | 4,543,283 | 2% |
| Exports | 33,113 | 33,268 | 0% | -14% | 514,144 | 22% |
Disclosure:
The information in this article is based on research by Topline Research. All efforts have been made to ensure the data represented in this article is as per the research report. This report should not be considered investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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