Pakistan’s GDP Shows Positive Growth in 3QFY24
The National Accounts Committee (NAC) has released GDP estimates for the third quarter of FY24, indicating a growth of 2.09%, a significant improvement from the -0.42% recorded in 3QFY23. The NAC also provided provisional figures for the entire fiscal year FY24, suggesting a growth rate of 2.38%, closely aligning with Topline Research’s estimate of 2.5%.
Sector-wise Growth in 3QFY24
Agriculture
Agriculture showed a strong performance with a growth of 3.94%. All components of the sector contributed positively:
- Important crops: +2.89% (boosted by wheat production)
- Other crops: +1.14%
- Cotton ginning: +61.75%
- Livestock: +4.20%
Industry
Despite a decline in the construction industry (-15.75%), the industrial sector grew by 3.84%, driven by:
- Mining and quarrying: +0.63%
- Large-scale manufacturing: +1.47%
- Electricity, gas, and water supply: +37.3%
Services
The services sector grew by 0.83%, showing a mixed trend among its components:
- Wholesale and retail trade: +0.38%
- Transport and storage: +0.91%
- Information and communication: -5.92%
- Finance and insurance activities: -7.11%
- Public administration and social security: -6.38%
- Education: +10.38%
Upward Revisions for 1QFY24 and 2QFY24
The NAC revised the GDP growth rates for the first and second quarters of FY24 upwards:
- 1QFY24: Revised to 2.71% from the earlier estimate of 2.50%
- 2QFY24: Revised to 1.79% from the earlier estimate of 1.0%
These revisions bring the average GDP growth for the first nine months of FY24 to 2.2%, in line with expectations and higher than Bloomberg’s survey estimate of 1.8%.
GDP Growth Estimates by Various Institutions
- State Bank of Pakistan (SBP): Estimates GDP growth for FY24 to be in the range of 2-3%, as per its half-year report released on May 14, 2024.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF): Projected a growth rate of 2.0% for FY24 in its country report published in May 2024.
- World Bank: Forecasted a GDP growth rate of 1.8% for FY24 in its April 2024 update.
Pakistan GDP Growth Summary
| Sector | 1QFY24 (Revised) | 2QFY24 (Revised) | 3QFY24 (Actual) | FY24 (Provisional) | FY24 Topline (Estimated) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture | 8.59% | 5.83% | 3.94% | 6.25% | 5.10% |
| Industrial | -0.44% | 0.09% | 3.84% | 1.21% | 2.60% |
| Services | 2.02% | 0.75% | 0.83% | 1.21% | 1.40% |
| GDP | 2.71% | 1.79% | 2.09% | 2.38% | 2.50% |
Disclaimer:
The information in this article is based on research by Topline Research. All efforts have been made to ensure the data represented in this article is as per the research report. This report should not be considered investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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