Is Apna Ghar the Next Major Catalyst for Pakistan’s Cement Stocks?

Introduction

The government’s subsidized housing program, launched under the “Wazir-e-Azam Apna Ghar Program – Ghar Ho Tu Apna” banner, is gaining traction. Financing approvals increased 117% YoY during the first two months of FY27 to PKR313bn, while actual disbursements stood at PKR45bn, or 14% of approved financing. The program targets PKR3.2tn of financing to address the housing needs of 500,000 units. A meaningful portion of this financing is expected to fund construction of new houses and flats, although some financing will be used for already constructed housing. The report assumes that 50% of the total allocation will be utilized and that 65% of the approved amount will be converted into new cement consumption. Based on these assumptions, the scheme could generate approximately 3.86mn tons of incremental cement demand over five years. Importantly, this demand has not been incorporated into the report’s base estimates.

What exactly does the Apna Ghar scheme offer?

Source: SBP / Intermarket Securities.

The structure of the scheme is particularly relevant for cement because borrowers can use financing to construct a house on an existing plot or purchase a plot and construct a house. These categories should have a more direct impact on construction activity than financing used to purchase existing housing units.

Is this housing push more credible than the previous cycle?

The report compares the current program with the previous Mera Pakistan Mera Ghar scheme. While the earlier initiative also aimed to expand mortgage financing for low- and middle-income households with subsidized financing of up to PKR10mn, execution fell significantly short of its ambition. Only approximately 31,000 housing units had been financed, while commercial banks had disbursed around PKR120bn under government-backed housing programs by mid-2022. According to the report, the operating environment is now more supportive. The earlier program coincided with acute macroeconomic stress, elevated sovereign-risk concerns and a relatively underdeveloped mortgage framework. Since then, the SBP has strengthened the housing-finance framework, while lower interest rates, softer inflation and a gradual recovery in economic activity have improved the broader macroeconomic backdrop. The Finance Act 2025 has also reinstated a tax credit on housing-loan interest under Section 63A. According to the report, this lowers the effective after-tax cost of borrowing for eligible filers and provides another incentive for mortgage financing. However, execution risk remains.

How much additional cement demand could the scheme generate?

The report estimates that the housing program could generate approximately 3.86mn tons of incremental cement consumption over the next five years. This translates into approximately 0.8mn tons of additional demand annually.

Source: Intermarket Securities Research.

Could the housing scheme lift FY27 cement demand growth?

The report currently forecasts 8% local cement demand growth in FY27, followed by 6% annual growth thereafter. Cement demand has historically grown at around 1.5 times GDP growth, although it remains highly sensitive to construction activity, government development spending and private-sector real estate investment. The additional housing demand could lift FY27 local cement demand from approximately 44.8mn tons to 45.6mn tons. This represents an additional 1.9% growth contribution, taking the implied FY27 growth rate to 10% rather than the previously estimated 8%.

Source: Intermarket Securities Research.

What happens if the government utilizes more than 50% of the allocation?

The base case assumes a 50% approval rate, but the report also considers scenarios in which 75% or 100% of the PKR3.2tn allocation is deployed. Under the 75% approval scenario, incremental cement demand could reach 5.78mn tons over five years. At 100%, the estimated incremental demand rises to 7.71mn tons. This creates a potentially significant upside scenario for the sector because the current base estimates do not include the incremental demand from the housing program.

Which cement companies could benefit the most?

The report provides an estimated range for FY27 EPS accretion for its cement-sector coverage under different approval scenarios.

Source: Intermarket Securities Research.

MLCF shows the highest potential EPS accretion in the 100% deployment scenario at 4–7%, while DGKC shows the highest upper-end EPS accretion in the 50% approval scenario at 6%. PIOC reaches up to 5% in both scenarios.

Are there any abnormal quarterly-report elements to consider?

No quarterly financial statements or company-level quarterly financial-cost data are provided in this report. Therefore, there is no basis in the attached file to identify abnormal increases in financial costs, finance charges, taxation, margins, inventory or other quarterly-report anomalies. The report is a sector update focused on the Apna Ghar housing program and its potential impact on cement demand, rather than a quarterly earnings review.

What is the biggest risk to the cement-sector upside?

The biggest issue is execution. The report explicitly notes that actual disbursements may continue to lag the headline program targets. Although financing approvals reached PKR313bn in the first two months of FY27, actual disbursements were only PKR45bn, representing 14% of approved financing. There is also a distinction between financing housing construction and financing purchases of already constructed homes. Only the former has a direct and immediate connection with incremental cement consumption. That is why the report assumes that 65% of financing converts into new construction rather than assuming the entire program translates into cement demand.

Conclusion

The report’s central argument is straightforward: the Apna Ghar scheme represents upside that the current cement-demand estimates have not yet priced in. Under the base assumptions, the program could add approximately 3.86mn tons of cement demand over five years, or around 0.8mn tons annually. A higher utilization rate could push incremental demand substantially higher, reaching 5.78mn tons at 75% deployment and 7.71mn tons at 100% deployment. The key takeaway is therefore not that the entire PKR3.2tn allocation will automatically translate into cement sales. That would be an overly aggressive assumption. The investment case rests on actual disbursement, the share directed toward new construction and the pace at which the housing program scales. If execution improves, the sector has a genuine demand catalyst that sits outside the current base-case estimates. The most important point in the report is that the estimated 3.86mn tons of incremental cement demand is not included in the existing base case. That creates genuine upside, but investors should not treat the headline PKR3.2tn allocation as guaranteed cement demand. The conversion from approval → disbursement → new construction → cement consumption is the chain that ultimately matters.

⚠️ This post reflects the author’s personal opinion and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk and should be done independently. Read full disclaimer →