Pakistan cement dispatches decline in June 2024

Local cement sales down 18% in June

In June 2024, local cement dispatches in Pakistan are expected to decrease by 18% month-on-month (MoM), totaling 2.76 million tons. This decline is also projected to be 21% lower compared to June 2023. The primary reasons for this drop are fewer working days due to Eid holidays and lower demand following the seasonal peak in May 2024.

Year-on-year decline in sales

For June 2024, the average daily domestic sales are anticipated to be 92,000 tons per day, a decrease from the 116,300 tons per day average in June 2023. This year-on-year (YoY) decline in local cement dispatches is attributed to a slowdown in construction activities caused by higher construction costs and increased cement bag prices, which have risen by 13% and 7% in the North and South regions, respectively.

Monthly and yearly comparison of sales

Cement Sales (mn tons)	Jun-24E	Jun-23A	YoY	MoM
Local	2.76	3.49	-21%	-18%
North	2.36	2.86	-17%	-14%
South	0.40	0.63	-36%	-34%
Export	0.51	0.58	-11%	-45%
Total	3.28	4.07	-19%	-24%

FY24 overview: slight increase in total sales

For the fiscal year 2024 (FY24), total cement sales are expected to rise by 1% year-on-year, reaching 45.02 million tons. This includes a 5% decline in local sales to 37.87 million tons and a 57% increase in export sales to 7.15 million tons. This marks the first time in over 30 years that local cement sales have declined for three consecutive years.

Fiscal year sales comparison

Cement Sales (mn tons)	FY24E	FY23A	YoY
Local	37.87	40.02	-5%
North	31.29	32.78	-5%
South	6.58	7.24	-9%
Export	7.15	4.57	57%
Total	45.02	44.58	1%

Factors affecting sales

• Higher construction costs: Increased prices for construction inputs have slowed down construction activities.
• Rising cement bag prices: Prices have increased by 13% in the North and 7% in the South, further affecting sales.
• Lower government spending: Reduced spending from the Public Sector Development Program (PSDP) has also contributed to the decline in local sales.
• Improved export conditions: Lower coal prices and reduced freight charges have made cement exports more feasible, leading to a significant increase in export sales.

Company-wise performance

A closer look at the performance of major cement companies reveals mixed results, with some showing significant declines in local sales but substantial increases in exports.

Company-wise sales overview

Company	Jun-24E	Jun-23A	YoY	MoM	FY24E	YoY
LUCK	719,017	732,201	-2%	-8%	8,461,514	15%
Local	429,918	664,372	-35%	-22%	6,179,946	0%
Exports	289,099	67,829	326%	28%	2,281,568	97%
DGKC	323,348	512,934	-37%	-24%	4,828,039	-4%
Local	254,732	320,387	-20%	-19%	3,579,079	-13%
Exports	68,615	192,547	-64%	-39%	1,248,959	34%
MLCF	284,334	332,149	-14%	-20%	3,885,199	-5%
Local	271,825	319,547	-15%	-21%	3,719,247	-7%
Exports	12,509	12,602	-1%	8%	165,952	39%
BWCL	490,667	589,324	-17%	-15%	6,849,908	5%
Local	486,539	582,069	-16%	-15%	6,728,451	5%
Exports	4,128	7,255	-43%	-46%	121,457	55%
PIOC	169,172	234,125	-28%	-21%	2,345,362	-13%
Local	169,172	234,125	-28%	-21%	2,345,362	-13%
Exports	–	–	–	–	–	NM
CHCC	193,466	224,382	-14%	-16%	2,603,016	-9%
Local	157,650	194,574	-19%	-17%	2,200,613	-13%
Exports	35,816	29,808	20%	-12%	402,403	21%
ACPL	143,422	251,336	-43%	-9%	2,338,184	15%
Local	87,680	116,772	-25%	-15%	1,225,961	-10%
Exports	55,742	134,564	-59%	0%	1,112,223	65%
KOHC	184,116	251,824	-27%	-10%	2,551,155	-15%
Local	182,746	245,048	-25%	-10%	2,509,783	-15%
Exports	1,370	6,776	-80%	-0.53	41,372	34%
FCCL	444,108	412,234	8%	-1%	5,057,426	4%
Local	410,996	378,966	8%	0%	4,543,283	2%
Exports	33,113	33,268	0%	-14%	514,144	22%

Disclosure:

The information in this article is based on research by Topline Research. All efforts have been made to ensure the data represented in this article is as per the research report. This report should not be considered investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.