{"id":9506,"date":"2025-06-04T11:52:16","date_gmt":"2025-06-04T06:52:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/?p=9506"},"modified":"2025-06-04T11:52:45","modified_gmt":"2025-06-04T06:52:45","slug":"omc-sales-climb-for-third-straight-month-can-the-momentum-hold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/omc-sales-climb-for-third-straight-month-can-the-momentum-hold\/","title":{"rendered":"OMC sales climb for third straight month: can the momentum hold?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The oil marketing sector in Pakistan is showing signs of resilience, with volumetric sales for May 2025 marking the third consecutive monthly increase. Total OMC sales clocked in at <strong>1.5 million tons<\/strong>, up <strong>10% year-on-year<\/strong> and <strong>5% month-on-month<\/strong>, reaching their highest level since November 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This resurgence is being driven by improving fuel consumption trends, rising summer demand, and stable retail prices, all of which bode well for investors in key OMC players like <a href=\"https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/tag\/pso\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"PSO\"><strong>PSO<\/strong> <\/a>and <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/tag\/apl\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"APL\">APL<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Retail fuels drive the surge<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Retail fuel categories, <strong>Motor Spirit (MS)<\/strong>, <strong>High-Speed Diesel (HSD)<\/strong>, and <strong>High-Octane Blending Component (HOBC)<\/strong>, led the increase:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>MS up <strong>15% YoY<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>HSD up <strong>5% YoY<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>HOBC up <strong>5% YoY<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>A combination of stable prices and increased agricultural diesel usage, spurred by hot weather and irrigation needs, supported the gains. During 11MFY25, industry retail volumes grew by <strong>10% YoY<\/strong>, highlighting the sector\u2019s underlying demand strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">PSO maintains leadership amid challenges<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While <strong>Pakistan State Oil (PSO)<\/strong> posted a <strong>3% YoY decline<\/strong> in May sales, it managed a <strong>3% sequential improvement<\/strong>. PSO maintained a commanding <strong>41.9% market share<\/strong>, though this was down from <strong>47.9%<\/strong> in May 2024. The slip was due to intensified competition from players like <strong>GO<\/strong> and <strong>WAFI<\/strong>, whose aggressive retail expansion is eating into PSO\u2019s share.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, PSO\u2019s HSD and MS volumes saw sequential gains, reflecting short-term recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Private players gain momentum<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Private OMCs are rapidly scaling up:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/tag\/hascol\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"HASCOL\"><strong>HASCOL<\/strong> <\/a>grew sales by <strong>31% YoY<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>WAFI<\/strong> posted a <strong>23% YoY<\/strong> increase<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>GO<\/strong> more than tripled its share to <strong>11.1% in May<\/strong>, up from <strong>3.8% last year<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>These gains were led by expanding retail networks and an aggressive push in fuel volumes, especially in diesel and premium gasoline categories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">APL sees mixed performance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Attock Petroleum Limited (APL)<\/strong> saw a modest <strong>2% YoY decline<\/strong> in May sales but improved <strong>9% MoM<\/strong>. APL continues to face stiff supply-led competition, especially in the retail space. Over 11MFY25, APL\u2019s volumes declined <strong>7% YoY<\/strong>, but the stock remains attractive from a dividend and valuation perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Government ramps up petroleum levy collection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>OMC sales growth has resulted in significant fiscal inflows. The <strong>Petroleum Development Levy (PDL)<\/strong> collection reached <strong>PKR 1.05 trillion<\/strong> in 11MFY25. With one month to go in FY25, the expected PDL haul is projected at <strong>PKR 1.2 trillion<\/strong>, just shy of the <strong>PKR 1.28 trillion<\/strong> annual target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent moves, such as the ECC\u2019s decision to raise the PDL ceiling to <strong>PKR 90\/liter<\/strong>, and proposals for a <strong>carbon tax of PKR 3\u20135\/liter<\/strong>, could affect future demand patterns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Investment outlook: \u2018BUY\u2019 on PSO and APL<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite risks from higher levies and taxes, analysts maintain a bullish outlook on the sector, particularly for <strong>PSO<\/strong> and <strong>APL<\/strong>. Their strong fundamentals, expected <strong>revision in OMC margins<\/strong> during 4QFY25, and improved macro outlook support the case for long-term gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Stock<\/th><th>Target Price (Dec\u201925)<\/th><th>P\/E<\/th><th>Dividend Yield FY26E<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PSO<\/td><td>PKR 729<\/td><td>5.1x<\/td><td>5.5%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>APL<\/td><td>PKR 850<\/td><td>6.5x<\/td><td>5.8%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The OMC sector is showing signs of revival, supported by stronger volumes, stable pricing, and healthy fiscal collections. As Pakistan\u2019s economy moves toward gradual stabilization, investors may find compelling value in top OMC names like <strong>PSO and APL<\/strong>, especially ahead of potential margin revisions and resolution of circular debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Source: AKD Research<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The oil marketing sector in Pakistan is showing signs of resilience, with volumetric sales for May 2025 marking the third consecutive monthly increase. Total OMC sales clocked in at 1.5 million tons, up 10% year-on-year and 5% month-on-month, reaching their highest level since November 2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9252,"featured_media":9510,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[154,343],"tags":[168,51,166],"class_list":["post-9506","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","category-sector-analysis","tag-apl","tag-hascol","tag-pso"],"featured_image_src":{"landsacpe":["https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Top-X-Stocks16-1140x445.jpg",1140,445,true],"list":["https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Top-X-Stocks16-463x348.jpg",463,348,true],"medium":["https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Top-X-Stocks16-300x188.jpg",300,188,true],"full":["https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Top-X-Stocks16.jpg",1920,1200,false]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9506","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9252"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9506"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9506\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9511,"href":"https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9506\/revisions\/9511"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9510"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ksestocks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}