In May 2024, the sales of petroleum products experienced a significant increase. The overall off-take rose by 26% compared to April 2024 and 7% compared to May 2023, reaching approximately 1.4 million tons. This increase was primarily driven by the sales of Motor Spirit (MS) and High-Speed Diesel (HSD), which increased by 1% and 18% year-on-year (YoY), respectively. The sales volumes for MS and HSD were about 607,000 tons and 643,000 tons, respectively.
The sequential growth from April 2024 to May 2024 was noteworthy:
The crackdown by the government on the influx of smuggled Iranian oil positively impacted the demand for HSD, leading to a 44% increase in demand through legal channels.
From July 2023 to May 2024 (11MFY24), the cumulative oil sales volume was approximately 13.8 million tons, reflecting a 10% decline compared to the same period last year. This decline was primarily due to lower sales of MS, HSD, and FO, which decreased by 5%, 2%, and 52% YoY, respectively. The increase in oil prices, with petrol prices averaging around PKR 283 per litre, was a contributing factor.
The performance of major oil marketing companies varied:
The estimated PDL (Petroleum Development Levy) recovery from MS and HSD for the 11 months of FY24 is expected to have accumulated to approximately PKR 902 billion, surpassing the target of PKR 869 billion for FY24.
Upcoming budget measures in line with IMF recommendations suggest an expected increase in PDL levy up to PKR 100 per liter or the introduction of a carbon levy. Additionally, the expected imposition of an 18% GST on petroleum products may result in a substantial hike in POL prices, which could further pressure sales volumes in the future.
| Category | Subcategory | May’24 | Apr’24 | MoM | May’23 | YoY | 11MFY24 | 11MFY23 | YoY_11M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INDUSTRY | MS | 607 | 530 | 14% | 603 | 1% | 6437 | 6800 | -5% |
| INDUSTRY | HOBC | 12 | 11 | 8% | 6 | 97% | 95 | 79 | 19% |
| INDUSTRY | KERO | 6 | 5 | 22% | 6 | -5% | 51 | 48 | 7% |
| INDUSTRY | JP-1 | 52 | 58 | -11% | 45 | 16% | 600 | 566 | 6% |
| INDUSTRY | HSD | 643 | 469 | 37% | 545 | 18% | 5693 | 5828 | -2% |
| INDUSTRY | LDO | 2 | 1 | 36% | 1 | 1.2x | 17 | 12 | 41% |
| INDUSTRY | FO | 69 | 30 | 1.3x | 91 | -24% | 938 | 1956 | -52% |
| INDUSTRY | Total | 1389 | 1104 | 26% | 1296 | 7% | 13831 | 15291 | -10% |
| PSO | MS | 266 | 248 | 7% | 257 | 3% | 2967 | 3016 | -2% |
| PSO | HSD | 321 | 242 | 33% | 278 | 15% | 3056 | 3160 | -3% |
| PSO | FO | 18 | 4 | 3.3x | 13 | 42% | 200 | 870 | -77% |
| PSO | Other Fuels | 60 | 65 | -7% | 51 | 18% | 672 | 611 | 10% |
| PSO | Total | 665 | 559 | 19% | 599 | 11% | 6895 | 7657 | -10% |
| SHEL | MS | 60 | 51 | 18% | 57 | 5% | 628 | 719 | -13% |
| SHEL | HSD | 37 | 28 | 35% | 30 | 23% | 358 | 418 | -14% |
| SHEL | FO | 0 | 0 | N/M | 0 | N/M | 0 | 4 | -1.0x |
| SHEL | Other Fuels | 3 | 3 | 5% | 1 | 1.1x | 22 | 23 | -4% |
| SHEL | Total | 100 | 81 | 23% | 89 | 13% | 1008 | 1164 | -13% |
| APL | MS | 57 | 50 | 15% | 49 | 17% | 590 | 570 | 3% |
| APL | HSD | 63 | 39 | 62% | 47 | 34% | 527 | 499 | 6% |
| APL | FO | 16 | 6 | 1.8x | 24 | -33% | 234 | 328 | -29% |
| APL | Other Fuels | 4 | 4 | -10% | 3 | 23% | 36 | 42 | -14% |
| APL | Total | 140 | 99 | 42% | 123 | 14% | 1386 | 1439 | -4% |
| HASCOL | MS | 24 | 16 | 49% | 35 | -31% | 225 | 233 | -3% |
| HASCOL | HSD | 17 | 11 | 54% | 32 | -47% | 121 | 125 | -3% |
| HASCOL | FO | 0 | 0 | N/M | 0 | N/M | 0 | 0 | N/M |
| HASCOL | Other Fuels | 0 | 0 | N M | 0 | N M | 1 | 1 | -30% |
| HASCOL | Total | 41 | 27 | 51% | 67 | -39% | 346 | 358 | -3% |
Disclaimer:
The information in this article is based on research by Taurus Research. All efforts have been made to ensure the data represented in this article is as per the research report. This report should not be considered investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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