Oil sales volumes decline in April 2024

Overview

In April 2024, oil sales volumes in Pakistan experienced a notable decline, with total volumes reaching approximately 1.1 million tons, down 4% compared to the previous month and down 6% compared to April 2023. This decline marks the lowest sales volume recorded in the past six months. The decrease can be attributed to increased smuggling of Iranian oil into the market and reduced production by power generation companies.

Detailed Breakdown

• Motor Spirit (MS) and Furnace Oil (FO) Volumes:
• MS and FO sales volumes in April 2024 stood at 0.53 million tons and 0.47 million tons, respectively, showing declines of 7% and 33% compared to March 2024.
• High-Speed Diesel (HSD) Sales:
• HSD sales remained unchanged compared to the previous month.

Iranian Oil Presence and Losses

Since the General Elections, Iranian oil smuggling has significantly increased in Pakistan, with smuggled oil being distributed through various petrol stations across different regions of the country. This activity is estimated to cause an annual loss of approximately PKR 227 billion to the national exchequer.

Year-to-Date Sales Performance

On a cumulative basis for the first ten months of FY24 (10MFY24), total sales volumes reached approximately 12.4 million tons, down by 11% compared to the same period last year. The decline is mainly attributed to lower sales of MS, HSD, and FO, which decreased by 6%, 4%, and 53% respectively year-on-year.

Company Performance:

PSO, SHEL, and APL experienced declines in sales volumes by 12%, 16%, and 5% respectively year-on-year.

HASCOL, however, saw a 5% increase in sales, driven by higher HSD and MS sales.

Market Share

PSO Dominance:

PSO maintained its dominance in the market with a market share of 50.6%, showing an increase of 1.4 percentage points.

APL and SHEL witnessed declines in market share, reaching 8.9% and 7.4% respectively.

Imports and Exchange Rate Adjustments

Since January 2024, PSO has cancelled around 400,000 tons of diesel imports due to an oversupply of HSD in the country, caused by smuggled Iranian oil and increased refinery production. PSO has also received exchange rate adjustments on petrol and HSD.

Revenue Outlook

The estimated Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) recovery from MS and HSD for 10MFY24 is approximately PKR 806 billion, slightly below the target of PKR 869 billion for the full fiscal year ending FY24.

Product	Apr’24 (000 tons)	Mar’24 (000 tons)	MoM	Apr’23 (000 tons)	YoY	10MFY24 (000 tons)	10MFY23 (000 tons)	YoY
INDUSTRY
MS	530	573	-7%	580	-9%	5,830	6,198	-6%
HOBC	11	10	6%	6	80%	83	74	13%
KERO	5	4	13%	4	27%	45	41	8%
JP-1	58	57	1%	47	23%	549	522	5%
HSD	469	463	1%	461	2%	5,050	5,283	-4%
LDO	1	2	-8%	1	21%	15	11	35%
F O	30	44	-33%	72	-59%	869	1,866	-53%
Total	1,104	1,154	-4%	1,171	-6%	12,442	13,995	-11%
COMPANY WISE
PSO
MS	248	284	-13%	267	-7%	2,701	2,759	-2%
HSD	242	239	1%	252	-4%	2,735	2,882	-5%
F O	4	5	-23%	5	-22%	181	857	-79%
Other Fuels	65	65	0%	52	26%	612	560	9%
Total	559	594	-6%	576	-3%	6,230	7,058	-12%
SHEL
MS	51	60	-15%	58	-12%	568	661	-14%
HSD	28	32	-13%	28	-3%	321	388	-17%
F O	0	0	N/M	0	N/M	0	4	-1.0x
Other Fuels	3	3	-2%	2	74%	19	22	-11%
Total	81	94	-14%	88	-7%	908	1,075	-16%
APL
MS	50	50	-1%	52	-4%	533	521	2%
HSD	39	39	-2%	39	0%	464	453	3%
F O	6	11	-49%	26	-78%	218	304	-28%
Other Fuels	4	3	66%	3	61%	32	39	-17%
Total	99	103	-4%	120	-18%	1,246	1,316	-5%
HASCOL
MS	16	15	11%	28	-42%	201	198	2%
HSD	11	11	0%	7	50%	104	93	12%
F O	0	0	N/M	0	N/M	0	0	N/M
Other Fuels	0	0	N/M	0	N/M	0	1	-41%
Total	27	26	6%	35	-23%	305	292	5%

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Disclaimer:

The information in this article is based on research by Taurus Research. All efforts have been made to ensure the data represented in this article is as per the research report. This report should not be considered investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.