Headline inflation is expected to reach approximately 12.66% in June 2024, compared to 11.76% in the previous month and 29.40% in the same period last year (SPLY). On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, inflation is anticipated to rise by around 54 basis points (bps) in June 2024. This increase follows a cumulative decline of 10.2 percentage points (ppt) over the last two months.
The main driver of this inflation increase is the food basket, which is expected to rise by about 83 bps due to higher vegetable prices during the Eid season. Key contributors to this rise are tomatoes and onions, while wheat prices remain stable. In contrast, the transport index is expected to decrease by around 67 bps due to lower motor fuel prices.
The estimated inflation for June 2024 will bring the average inflation for FY24 to approximately 23.9%, down from 29.0% in FY23.
In the last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut the benchmark rate by 150 bps, bringing the policy rate to 20.5%. Looking ahead, food and energy indices are approaching their lowest points, but the high base effect is expected to keep inflation readings low in the coming months.
While the inflation trajectory is highly susceptible to international commodity price increases and local currency devaluation, it is expected to average around 11%-12% during FY25. This provides significant room for further adjustments in the policy rate. However, monetary easing is likely to be moderate and gradual due to the vulnerability of headline CPI to multiple upside risks.
| Item and Specification | Weight | Jun-24 | Jun-23 | YoY Δ | May-24 | MoM Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General | 100.0% | 256.17 | 227.39 | 12.7% | 254.80 | 0.5% |
| Food | 34.6% | 266.2 | 261.8 | 1.7% | 264.0 | 0.8% |
| Alcoholic Bev & Tobacco | 1.0% | 372.0 | 356.8 | 4.3% | 366.7 | 1.4% |
| Clothing and footwear | 8.6% | 241.6 | 205.2 | 17.7% | 239.5 | 0.9% |
| Housing and other | 23.6% | 236.8 | 177.5 | 33.4% | 236.6 | 0.1% |
| Furnishing and household | 4.1% | 269.4 | 238.8 | 12.8% | 267.4 | 0.7% |
| Health | 2.8% | 242.8 | 204.1 | 18.9% | 241.2 | 0.7% |
| Transport | 5.9% | 312.9 | 279.2 | 12.1% | 315.1 | -0.7% |
| Communication | 2.2% | 134.3 | 118.3 | 13.5% | 134.3 | 0.0% |
| Recreation and culture | 1.6% | 265.0 | 244.6 | 8.3% | 262.3 | 1.0% |
| Education | 3.8% | 199.3 | 172.3 | 15.7% | 199.0 | 0.2% |
| Restaurants and hotels | 6.9% | 268.5 | 238.3 | 12.7% | 267.2 | 0.5% |
| Misc. goods and services | 4.9% | 286.7 | 249.1 | 15.1% | 282.8 | 1.4% |
The inflation rate in June 2024 is expected to rise, driven mainly by increases in food prices due to seasonal factors. However, transport costs have seen a decline. The overall inflation outlook suggests a moderate and gradual path to monetary easing, with inflation likely to average around 11%-12% in FY25.
Disclaimer:
The information in this article is based on research by Insight Research. All efforts have been made to ensure the data represented in this article is as per the research report. This report should not be considered investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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