Auto Sales Expected to Dip in March 2024

Overview

In February 2024, the automotive industry showed strong year-on-year growth, but it’s expected to experience a 3% year-on-year decline in March 2024. This decline is projected to result in approximately 8,090 units sold collectively by the three listed companies.

Performance Expectations

• HCAR to Lead: Despite the overall decline, HCAR is anticipated to outperform its peers with a remarkable 2.6x year-on-year increase in auto sales. This surge is attributed to factors such as a low base effect from plant shutdowns in March 2023 and price reductions announced in March 2024.
• PSMC and INDU: Conversely, PSMC is forecasted to report a 25% and INDU an 11% year-on-year decline in sales for the month.

Company	Jan-24	Feb-24	Mar-24E	MoMΔ	YoYΔ	1QCY23	1QCY24	YoYΔ
PSMC	4,550	4,885	4,200	-14%	-25%	9,551	13,635	43%
HCAR	1,339	1,517	2,190	44%	162%	5,175	5,046	-2%
INDU	2,762	2,036	1,700	-17%	-11%	7,285	6,498	-11%
3-listed total	8,651	8,438	8,090	-4%	-3%	22,011	25,179	14%
SAZEW – SUV	967	407	505	24%	405%	796	1,879	136%
SAZEW – 3-wheeler	2,229	1,524	1,341	-12%	155%	3,993	5,094	28%

Quarter-to-Quarter Comparison

Comparing the first quarter of 2024 with the same period in previous years, there’s a promising 14% year-on-year growth in auto sales. However, even with this growth, sales remain substantially lower, approximately 62%, compared to the first quarter of 2022. The low base effect from plant shutdowns in the first quarter of 2023 contributes to this increase.

Pricing Strategies

• PSMC: In response to a notification by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) regarding an increase in GST, PSMC had already raised car prices prior to the notification. Further adjustments were made to comply with the new regulations.
• INDU and HCAR: Meanwhile, INDU reduced prices for certain models, while HCAR announced price cuts for specific variants during March 2024.

Missing Stimulus for Demand Growth

Despite some recovery in auto sales due to factors like improved agricultural income and pre-election buying, a sustainable stimulus for demand growth is still absent. Economic activity, currency stability, and anticipated interest rate cuts in car financing rates are expected to drive demand in fiscal year 2025.

Disclaimer

The information in this article is based on research by JSGlobal. All efforts have been made to ensure the data represented in this article is as per the research report. This report should not be considered investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.